Everyday Homicides in the nation Fall 37% In Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Official Figures

The typical figure of daily homicides each month in Mexico has dropped by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to recent official data. Nevertheless, security specialists have cautioned that murder figures may not signal better national stability.

Notable Reduction in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an average of close to 55 homicides a day in November compared with roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the leadership in the previous September. This announcement was shared by the head of the nation's national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we’ve had in these past months is very notable,” Sheinbaum said, explaining that the previous month the smallest amount of homicides were recorded for any single November in the past decade.

Historical Context and Official Plan

Intense cartel rivalries, combined with the government’s heavily military operations to confront the cartels, have caused Mexico’s murder rate escalate in recent times. The rate hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure over 4x higher than the US. From that point, killings have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. The President has credited her national security approach for an seemingly steeper drop in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the President said: “There is a strategy, we have oversight of the plan, and there is detailed tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The key components of the President's safety plan involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Greater collaboration between various departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations

However, public safety analysts cautioned that relying on murder statistics to paint a picture of improved security was misleading. This is especially true given the rise in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“It would be very good information if this was a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

Per the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the same period last year. However, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer valid for assessing the situation of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the ability or the inclination to accurately identify and categorize remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month averages of everyday killings was additionally problematic because it might hide periods when there were particularly high numbers of murders.

“Relying on the per-day average makes spikes of violent crime invisible,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

An area where the administration can cite the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were apprehended between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, per official data. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Anger

But in spite of these actions, Mexico remains grappling with severe bloodshed, with several states in the grip of cartel-related conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the past year.

A short time after, thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and across the nation to express their outrage at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a way to construct a picture of safety. From a political standpoint it’s highly effective, from a social perspective it’s very problematic,” Vargas concluded.