Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.
Major Hurdles in the Selection Procedure
Multiple figures on the party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
